Dewey Defeats Truman! How much do you worry about the coronavirus? Heading into Election Day on November 2, 1948, it seemed like Thomas Dewey had the U.S. presidency in the bag. Gallup’s final voter survey a fortnight before the election showed him ahead by just 6 points. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … The pandemic he wished would miraculously go away is entering its third wave. The 1948 presidential election was a bigger surprise than 2016, and has eerie parallels to 2020. Try Midterm elections netted the Republicans 55 seats in 1946, even more than the Democrats’ 41 seats in 2018. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”. Only good fortune saved NBC’s mistake from being a “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” moment for the burgeoning television age. Dewey Defeats Truman Newspaper collectibles for sale including the iconic paper from the thChicago Tribune 1948 in which they incorrectly predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the presidential election. The Los Angeles Times called him “the most complete fumbler and blunderer this nation has seen in high office in a long time.” Alistair Cooke of the Manchester Guardian published an article on the day of the election entitled “Harry S. Truman: A Study of a Failure.”. (W. Eugene Smith / LIFE Picture Collection) SEE DETAILS One of our Best Presidents ever. Brother, can you spare a dime? Yet contemporaries still assumed that was a sufficient margin to assure him of victory. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Those 120 days proved as intense a trial by fire as any president has had. The average American’s probability of catching Covid-19 this year has been much lower (less than 3%). C $31.56. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States president Harry S. Truman won an upset victory over Republican challenger and New York governor Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election. Baime. He is two points further behind in the polls than John McCain was in 2008 and almost as far behind as George H. W. Bush was in 1992. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … Buy It Now. Dewey Defeats Truman! On this day in 1948, in one of the least foreseen upsets in … In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. C $636.71. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN THE 1948 ELECTION AND THE BATTLE FOR AMERICA'S SOUL by A.J. NBC News constructed a cardboard model of the White House with two elephants that would emerge when Dewey’s victory was called. Like Trump, Truman also confronted institutional “deep state” opposition. If Trump wins all eight of those states, it doesn’t matter if he loses Michigan and Wisconsin: He’s a two-term president. or Best Offer . Truman was politically finished — hence the pun: “To err is Truman.”. According to RealClear Politics, Trump support was growing in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. But I can also see the despised underdog incumbent’s triumphant grin as he holds that erroneous front page aloft. Funny story written by Stefano M. Stefano. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. For pollsters, pundits, and the press, Democrat Harry Truman’s surprise victory over Republican Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 is, or ought to be, an enduring reminder about the perils of … There's a famous photo from the 1948 U.S. election showing the re-elected President Truman holding up an inaccurate copy of the Chicago Daily Tribune proclaiming 'Dewey Defeats Truman'. Buy the Paperback Book Dewey Defeats Truman by Thomas Mallon at Indigo.ca, Canada's largest bookstore. Recent headlines proclaiming “RPA is dead” should remind us of that famously incorrect headline we learned about in grade school, "Dewey Defeats Truman.” It was published on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent President Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas E. Dewey, the then-governor of New York. His re-election would be a surprise right up there with 1948 — or with 1992 in the U.K., where the Conservatives under John Major defied a recession to defeat Labour for the fourth consecutive election. “I’m calling this trip a crusade. In the months before the 1948 election, the polls gave the challenger comfortable margins of 5 to 15 points. Truman’s last-ditch effort to get out the vote mobilized infrequent Democratic voters and scooped up undecided voters and Republican defectors, since (as the pollsters’ postmortem ruefully noted) “about 1 voter in 7 made up his mind within the last two weeks and three fourths of them voted for Truman.”. In recent columns, experienced pundits from Peggy Noonan to Andrew Sullivan to Charlie Cook — none of them card-carrying Democrats — have dared to contemplate a landslide victory for Joe Biden. On Sept. 9, pollster Elmo Roper announced that “Thomas E. Dewey is almost as good as elected … I can think of nothing duller or more intellectually barren than acting like a sports announcer who feels he must pretend he is witnessing a neck-and-neck race.” The Crossley Poll of Oct. 15 placed Dewey ahead in 27 states. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by Bai. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is arguably the most famous headline in the history of the Chicago Tribune newspaper and is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. Remarkably, the three-way split in the Democratic base did not scupper Truman. Ironically, this example is a downplay of the trope. " Dewey Defeats Truman " was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President, Harry S. Truman, won an upset victory over Republican challenger and Governor of New York, Thomas E. Dewey, in the 1948 presidential election. The effective ground game of the Truman campaign was crucial in the final days of the race. In its final pre-election edition, Life magazine featured a glossy photo of Dewey and his staff with the caption, “Our Next President Rides by Ferryboat over San Francisco Bay.”, Newsweek surveyed 50 political experts on Oct. 11 and received unanimous confirmation that Dewey would win: “The landslide for Dewey will sweep the country.” Drew Pearson of the Washington Post “surveyed the closely-knit group around Tom Dewey who will take over the White House 86 days from now.”, As today, too, the press loathed the incumbent. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Click to read the full review of Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul in New York Journal of Books. The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. Yet Truman won not just because of polling errors, but because of late-stage momentum. All Rights Reserved. Dewey Defeats Truman: The Rarely Told Story of Chicago Tribune's Most Famous Issue. Terms & Conditions. Truman came second in all nine of the Gallup Poll’s post-convention surveys. Dewey gained endorsements from almost every major newspaper in America. Free shipping and pickup in store on eligible orders. FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover volunteered the services of the bureau to aid his opponent’s campaign. There were also signs of a late Trump rally in Pennsylvania — I expect him to win in Scranton, Biden’s birthplace — and Arizona. Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. S&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. Share on Facebook Share on Twitter. All rights reserved. The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. Truman’s crushing 303-189 Electoral College victory rode on razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states. Navalny Versus Putin Is an Epic, and Existential, Battle, What Navalny’s Arrest Says About the Kremlin, Don’t Let Chief Diversity Officer Be a Dead-End Job. ... Strom Thurmond, founder of the States’ Rights Democratic Party (popularly known as the Dixiecrats); and Thomas Dewey, the popular New York governor and … “Shy” Trump voters — people reluctant to share their real intentions with pollsters for fear of being judged — were much more numerous than in 2016 and so the polls were off. Hey, didn’t Trump kick the virus’s butt and bounce back to the campaign trail? Dewey had summed up the prevailing view in 1944: “Never argue with the Gallup Poll. The series of “Dewey Defeats Truman” photos has become an icon of tenacity, perseverance, self-confidence and success. My Halloween treat for one and all is 72 years old, dating back to just before Biden’s sixth birthday. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. Behind the Picture: ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Harry Truman. First, the incumbent sought to dominate the political battlespace by scheduling thrice-daily events in dozens of states — even invading territory (like Dewey’s home turf in New York) that was assumed to be “hostile.” Airport rallies and whistle-stops in battleground states (California, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania) leveraged the incumbent’s “populist everyman” image. The Chicago Tribune printed "Dewey Defeats Truman" in reference to this prediction on the front page of its November 3 edition (the day after the election). Sherman A1 (33,656 posts) 1. Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. A jubilant Harry Truman held up a Chicago newspaper emblazoned with the (erroneous) headline, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN," St. Louis, November 4, 1948. But, as a now-famous photograph would show, everyoneincluding the editors of the Chicago Tribunegot it wrong. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey … Contemporary political analyst Samuel Lubell concluded that “far from costing Dewey the election, the stay-at-homes may have saved him almost as crushing a defeat” as Republican nominee Alf Landon suffered in 1936, because higher Democratic turnout would have widened Truman’s margin of victory. Dewey Defeats Truman. In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. By ANDREW GLASS. The surprise victory of the plain-spoken Democratic nominee, Harry S. Truman, … On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. With that, forgive me for stepping just one day into the future! Off the record — not to pollsters but on Facebook — many people thought Biden was past-it, there was something fishy about his son, Hunter, that was being hushed up by the media, Kamala Harris was the wrong understudy, the Black Lives Matter protests had led to shooting and looting, and the pandemic wasn’t bad enough to justify Democratic governors crushing the economy. "Dewey Defeats Truman" By A.J. In his book “Out of the Jaws of Victory,” the journalist Jules Abels noted that Dewey’s pitch for unity was “an issue which had no visceral appeal to the average American. Not only did Truman win the election, he … Top Rated Seller Top Rated Seller. The Dewey Defeats Truman newspaper is arguably the most famous and sought after newspaper of all time. The final polls that year gave Labour a 1.5% lead; Major’s Tories won by 7.6% — a nine-point miss by the pollsters. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. The average of state errors undershot Truman’s election result by 4% to 5%. By morning, the headline was proven wrong. It’s a crusade of the people against the special interests, and if you back me up we’re going to win …”, Covering 21,928 miles by train and delivering 275 speeches (largely in modern-day “flyover country”), Truman appealed to the so-called forgotten man neglected by an out-of-touch Washington establishment. -- American elections before the 1960s were highly labor-intensive, with the door-knocking and get-out-the-vote efforts coming largely from volunteer labor — for Democrats, from organized labor; for Republicans, from the Chamber of Commerce. The series of “Dewey Defeats Truman” photos has become an icon of tenacity, perseverance, self-confidence and success. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by A. J. Baime book review. On Oct. 29, he told a roaring crowd in Queens to “throw the Galluping polls right into the ash can.”. He was previously a professor of history at Harvard, New York University and Oxford. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was a famously inaccurate banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election in an upset victory. Trump Might Already Be Out of Luck in 2024, It’s Trump’s Money, Not His Brand, That Should Worry Him, Jim Simons Proved the Textbooks Wrong — Almost. The genius math professor who ran Renaissance Technologies figured out how to reliably beat the market, but the rules still apply to everyone else. In terms of the popular vote (49.5% to 45.1%), Truman’s 11th-hour upset was the closest result since 1916. As Truman’s defeat was considered certain, nobody bothered to place any Democratic donkeys on the set. November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. A shift of only 3,500 votes would have flipped Ohio to Dewey; of 9,000, California; of 16,500, Illinois. Yes, as I argued here two weeks ago, I really can see the headline: “Biden Defeats Trump.” Gun to my head, I’d say the probability of a 2008-style blue wave is still roughly double that of a 1948-style upset. Hello, Sign in. (Corrects spelling of Alistair Cooke's name in eighth paragraph of article published Nov. 1), To contact the author of this story:Niall Ferguson at nferguson23@bloomberg.net, To contact the editor responsible for this story:Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. Progressive Democrats, getting cold feet over Truman’s record on civil rights and the Cold War, defected with former Vice President Henry Wallace to form the Progressive Party, while Dixiecrats rallied around Senator Strom Thurmond and the States’ Rights Democratic Party. Baime, a journalist and the author of “The Accidental President,” brings the epic back on stage with “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America’s Soul,” a straightforward narrative studded with evocative detail and surprising factoids. He is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, a New York-based advisory firm. He also fared unexpectedly well with Midwestern farmers, who had largely supported Dewey’s first presidential bid in 1944. The GOP’s 1948 election postmortem highlighted — as for the Democrats in 2016 — the perils of ebullient polling: In the words of historian Simon Topping, “Predictions of a Dewey landslide may have actually deterred many Republicans from voting.” But turnout was low on the Democratic side, too. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Politically, the small town is basically populated by Republicans - other than a few furtive Democrats - and the summer of 1948 … Appreciable numbers of Latino and black voters did, too. Have a confidential tip for our reporters? The economy is recovering, but after a savage recession. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Like Trump, Truman had lost control of the House of Representatives two years previously. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. And it was not only white working-class voters who felt this way. ‎ From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America.… In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. The Detroit Free Press dismissed Harry S. Truman as “intellectually unqualified” to remain president. Like Biden, Dewey ran a low-risk, low-profile campaign, assuming the inevitability of his victory, on the advice of his highly experienced campaign managers. “What’s the Use of Going Through with the Election?” was the caption of a typical cartoon two weeks before Election Day. Brand New. —– [Post-Election Update: I was wrong, especially in the national tone of the election’s outcome. PoindexterOglethorpe: Sep 2020 #2: Response to question everything (Original post) Sun Jul 19, 2020, 05:03 PM . President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). It has never been wrong and I very much doubt that it will ever be.”, According to David McCullough's biography of Truman, the betting odds against the incumbent were 15 to 1 on average — in some places, 30 to 1. Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Dewey’s inability to convert his “unity” platform into votes on Election Day is a cautionary tale for the Biden campaign. Indie rock band from San Diego, CA Now even Deutsche Bank says no. A good example is A J Baime’s new book, “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle For America’s Soul”. He represented the moderate Eastern wing of his party, and in 1948 had fended off more ideologically right-wing primary challengers such as Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio and General Douglas MacArthur. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were … Insufficient polling at the state level also played a part. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were … Mindful of California’s electoral importance, he picked a Californian running mate, Governor Earl Warren. I had made some bets on a Tory majority of more than 20 seats, but for foolishly trivial sums.). It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Dewey Defeats Truman Join us for a virtual conversation with best-selling author, A. J. Baime, to discuss his latest book, the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, during which Truman mounted a remarkable comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America. Market data provided by Interactive Data. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Review written by Steve Nathans-Kelly. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). The allure of prognostication is simply too enticing for me to pass up. ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Review: The Truman Show A month before the election, nine out of 10 U.S. newspapers endorsed Truman’s challenger. Did you know that Katharine Hepburn, Frank Lloyd Wright and Charlie Chaplin endorsed Wallace? As I write this, it’s early morning just before the polls open. In what is generally regarded as the greatest upset in American political history, Truman beat the heavily-favored Republican governor of New York, Thomas Dewey, by a substantial Electoral College margin, 303 to 189, but by fewer than three million votes in the popular vote. Forget impeachment. To name just two, there are fewer undecideds going into the final phase of this election, and there has been unprecedented early mail-in voting. Going into the 1948 election cycle, the president’s approval rating hovered in the low- to mid-30s (below Trump’s 35% approval nadir in December 2017). Sometimes it seemed that he was asking Americans to achieve unity by being united behind him.”. On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. The photograph with Truman holding aloft the paper has become one of the most famous newspaper photos of the century. As one of Hoover’s assistants put it: “No one in the Bureau gave Truman any chance of winning.”. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. News constructed a cardboard model of the Truman campaign was crucial in the bag famous newspaper photos of race... Because of polling errors, but after a savage recession in cornfields and dusty rail.... Photo of the Chicago Tribunegot it wrong well as the obvious similarities, there are many differences “. Margins in a handful of swing states the founder and managing Director of Greenmantle LLC a... Data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: http //www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html! 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